How Many People Born Again Per Second

Babies built-in to Muslims volition begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035; people with no religion confront a birth dearth

More babies were born to Christian mothers than to members of whatever other organized religion in recent years, reflecting Christianity'southward continued status equally the world's largest religious group. But this is unlikely to be the case for much longer: Less than xx years from now, the number of babies built-in to Muslims is expected to modestly exceed births to Christians, according to new Pew Research Center demographic estimates.

Muslims are projected to exist the world's fastest-growing major religious group in the decades ahead, as Pew Research Centre has explained, and signs of this rapid growth already are visible. In the menstruation between 2010 and 2015, births to Muslims fabricated up an estimated 31% of all babies born effectually the world – far exceeding the Muslim share of people of all ages in 2015 (24%).

The world'due south Christian population too has continued to grow, just more modestly. In recent years, 33% of the world'south babies were born to Christians, which is slightly greater than the Christian share of the earth'south population in 2015 (31%).

While the relatively young Christian population of a region similar sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow in the decades ahead, the same cannot be said for Christian populations everywhere. Indeed, in recent years, Christians have had a disproportionately large share of the world's deaths (37%) – in large part considering of the relatively advanced historic period of Christian populations in some places. This is especially true in Europe, where the number of deaths already is estimated to exceed the number of births amongst Christians. In Germany alone, for example, there were an estimated 1.4 one thousand thousand more Christian deaths than births between 2010 and 2015, a pattern that is expected to keep across much of Europe in the decades alee.

A note most terminology

The phrase "babies built-in to Christians" and "Christian births" are used interchangeably in this written report to refer to live births to Christian mothers. Parallel linguistic communication is used for other religious groups (due east.g., babies born to Muslims, Muslim births).
This written report more often than not avoids the terms "Christian babies" or "Muslim babies" because that wording could suggest children take on a religion at birth.

The supposition in these estimates and projections is that children tend to inherit their female parent's religious identity (or lack thereof) until immature machismo, when some choose to switch their religious identity. The project models in this report take into account estimated rates of religious switching (or conversion) into and out of major religious groups in the 70 countries for which such data are available.

Globally, the relatively young population and high fertility rates of Muslims lead to a projection that between 2030 and 2035, there will exist slightly more babies born to Muslims (225 million) than to Christians (224 million), even though the total Christian population volition still be larger. By the 2055 to 2060 flow, the birth gap between the two groups is expected to approach six 1000000 (232 million births among Muslims vs. 226 million births among Christians).^ane

In dissimilarity with this baby smash among Muslims, people who practise not identify with any religion are experiencing a much different trend. While religiously unaffiliated people currently make up 16% of the global population, but an estimated 10% of the world's newborns between 2010 and 2015 were born to religiously unaffiliated mothers. This dearth of newborns among the unaffiliated helps explain why religious "nones" (including people who identity as atheist or agnostic, likewise as those who have no item religion) are projected to decline as a share of the world'due south population in the coming decades.

By 2055 to 2060, only nine% of all babies volition be born to religiously unaffiliated women, while more than vii-in-ten will be born to either Muslims (36%) or Christians (35%).

These are among the key findings of a new Pew Research Center analysis of demographic information. This assay is based on – and builds on – the same database of more 2,500 censuses, surveys and population registers used for the 2015 report "The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050." Both reports share the same demographic project models, but the figures on births and deaths in this analysis take not been previously released.

In add-on, this written report provides updated global population estimates, as of 2015, for Christians, Muslims, religious "nones" and adherents of other religious groups. And the population growth projections in this report extend to 2060, a decade further than in the original study.

The projections exercise non assume that all babies volition remain in the religion of their female parent. The projections attempt to take religious switching (in all directions) into business relationship, but conversion patterns are complex and varied. In some countries, including the U.s., it is fairly common for adults to exit their childhood religion and switch to another faith (or no faith). For example, many people raised in the U.S. as Christians become unaffiliated in machismo, and vice versa – many people raised without any organized religion bring together a religious group later in their lives. Simply in some other countries, changes in religious identity are rare or fifty-fifty illegal.²

Now, the best available data indicate that the worldwide impact of religious switching lone, absent whatever other factors, would be a relatively small increase in the number of Muslims, a substantial increment in the number of unaffiliated people, and a substantial subtract in the number of Christians in coming decades. Globally, nonetheless, the effects of religious switching are overshadowed by the impact of differences in fertility and mortality. Equally a result, the unaffiliated are projected to decline as a share of the world's total population despite the heave they are expected to receive from people leaving Christianity and other religious groups in Europe, North America and some other parts of the world. And the number of Christians is projected to rise, though non as fast as the number of Muslims.

Global population projections, 2015 to 2060

Christians were the largest religious grouping in the world in 2015, making up nearly a third (31%) of Globe's 7.three billion people. Muslims were second, with 1.8 billion people, or 24% of the global population, followed past religious "nones" (xvi%), Hindus (15%) and Buddhists (7%). Adherents of folk religions, Jews and members of other religions make up smaller shares of the earth's people.

Betwixt 2015 and 2060, the earth's population is expected to increment by 32%, to ix.6 billion. Over that aforementioned menses, the number of Muslims – the major religious group with the youngest population and the highest fertility – is projected to increase by lxx%. The number of Christians is projected to rise by 34%, slightly faster than the global population overall yet far more slowly than Muslims.

Equally a result, according to Pew Research Center projections, by 2060, the count of Muslims (3.0 billion, or 31% of the population) will near the Christian count (3.1 billion, or 32%).³

Except for Muslims and Christians, all major world religions are projected to make up a smaller percentage of the global population in 2060 than they did in 2015.⁴ While Hindus, Jews and adherents of folk religions are expected to abound in absolute numbers in the coming decades, none of these groups volition keep stride with global population growth.

Worldwide, the number of Hindus is projected to rise by 27%, from 1.ane billion to i.four billion, lagging slightly behind the stride of overall population growth. Jews, the smallest religious grouping for which separate projections were made, are expected to grow by fifteen%, from fourteen.3 million in 2015 to 16.4 one thousand thousand worldwide in 2060.⁵ And adherents of diverse folk religions – including African traditional religions, Chinese folk religions, Native American religions and Australian ancient religions, among others – are projected to increase past v%, from 418 1000000 to 441 million.

Buddhists, meanwhile, are projected to decline in absolute number, dropping 7% from nearly 500 million in 2015 to 462 million in 2060. Low fertility rates and aging populations in countries such every bit Communist china, Thailand and Japan are the main demographic reasons for the expected shrinkage in the Buddhist population in the years ahead.

All other religions combined – an umbrella category that includes Baha'is, Jains, Sikhs, Taoists and many smaller faiths – also are projected to decrease slightly in number, from a total of approximately 59.7 million in 2015 to 59.4 million in 2060.^vi

The religiously unaffiliated population is projected to shrink equally a percentage of the global population, even though it will increase modestly in absolute number. In 2015, in that location were slightly fewer than i.ii billion atheists, agnostics and people who did not place with any detail religion around the world.⁷ By 2060, the unaffiliated population is expected to reach 1.2 billion. But equally a share of all people in the world, religious "nones" are projected to turn down from 16% of the total population in 2015 to 13% in 2060. While the unaffiliated are expected to keep to increase every bit a share the population in much of Europe and Northward America, people with no religion volition decline as a share of the population in Asia, where 75% of the world's religious "nones" alive.

Geographic differences like these play a major function in patterns of religious growth. Indeed, 1 of the main determinants of future growth is where each group is geographically full-bodied today. For example, the religiously unaffiliated population is heavily full-bodied in places with crumbling populations and depression fertility, such as Communist china, Japan, Europe and North America. By dissimilarity, religions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high and infant mortality rates mostly accept been falling – are likely to grow quickly. Much of the worldwide growth of Islam and Christianity, for case, is expected to take place in sub-Saharan Africa.

Change in where groups are full-bodied

The regional distribution of religious groups is also expected to shift in the coming decades. For example, the share of Christians worldwide who live in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase dramatically between 2015 and 2060, from 26% to 42%, due to high fertility in the region. Meanwhile, religious switching and lower fertility volition drive down the shares of the global Christian population living in Europe and Due north America.

Sub-Saharan Africa is as well expected to be domicile to a growing share of the world's Muslims. By 2060, 27% of the global Muslim population is projected to be living in the region, up from 16% in 2015. By contrast, the share of Muslims living in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to decline over the flow from 61% to l%. The share of Muslims in the Middle East and Northward Africa is expected to agree steady at 20%.

Every bit of 2015, three-in-four unaffiliated people alive in Asia and the Pacific. Simply that share is expected to decline to 66% by 2060 due to low fertility and an aging population. At the same time, a growing share of the unaffiliated will live outside of the Asia-Pacific, particularly in Europe and Due north America. By 2060, 9% of the global unaffiliated population will live in the United states alone, according to the projections.

The vast majority of Hindus and Buddhists (98-99%) will continue to alive in the Asia-Pacific region in the next several decades. About adherents of folk religions, too, volition remain in Asia and the Pacific (79% in 2060), although a growing share are expected to live sub-Saharan Africa (7% in 2015 vs. sixteen% in 2060). Roughly equal shares of the world's Jews live in State of israel (42%) and the United States in 2015 (40%). Only, past 2060, over half of all Jews (53%) are projected to live in Israel, while the U.S. is expected to accept a smaller share (32%).

Age and fertility are major factors backside growth of religious groups

The current historic period distribution of each religious group is an of import determinant of demographic growth. Some groups' adherents are predominantly young, with their prime childbearing years still ahead, while members of other groups are older and largely by their childbearing years. The median ages of Muslims (24 years) and Hindus (27) are younger than the median historic period of the earth'southward overall population (30), while the median age of Christians (30) matches the global median. All the other groups are older than the global median, which is office of the reason why they are expected to fall behind the pace of global population growth.⁸

Moreover, Muslims take the highest fertility rate of any religious group – an boilerplate of two.9 children per adult female, well above replacement level (2.one), the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population.⁹ Christians are second, at 2.6 children per woman. Hindu and Jewish fertility (two.iii each) are both just below the global average of 2.4 children per woman. All other groups accept fertility levels also depression to sustain their populations.

In add-on to fertility rates and age distributions, religious switching is likely to play a role in the changing sizes of religious groups.

Pew Inquiry Center projections attempt to incorporate patterns of religious switching in 70 countries where surveys provide information on the number of people who say they no longer belong to the religious group in which they were raised.¹⁰ In the projection model, all directions of switching are possible, and they may partially offset one another. In the United States, for example, surveys discover that although information technology is especially common for people who grew up as Christians to get unaffiliated, some people who were raised with no religious affiliation besides have switched to get Christians.¹¹ These types of patterns are projected to continue as future generations come of age. (For more details on how and where switching was modeled, see Appendix B: Methodology.)

Betwixt 2015 and 2020, Christians are projected to experience the largest losses due to switching. Globally, about v million people are expected to go Christians in this 5-twelvemonth period, while 13 million are expected to go out Christianity, with most of these departures joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated.

The unaffiliated are projected to add together 12 one thousand thousand and lose 4.6 million via switching, for a net gain of 7.6 million between 2015 and 2020. The projected net changes due to switching for other religious groups are smaller.

The demographic challenges of the religiously unaffiliated

Although current patterns of religious switching favor the growth of the religiously unaffiliated population – peculiarly in Europe, Due north America, Australia and New Zealand – religious "nones" are projected to turn down as a share of the earth'southward population in the coming decades due to a combination of depression fertility and an older age profile.

Between 2015 and 2020, religious "nones" are projected to experience a net proceeds of vii.half-dozen million people due to religious switching; people who grew up as Christians are expected to brand up the overwhelming majority of those who switch into the unaffiliated group.¹² Even so, if current religious switching patterns continue, gains fabricated through religious disaffiliation will not exist large plenty to make up for population losses due to other demographic factors.

For case, the 2015 to 2020 total fertility charge per unit for religiously unaffiliated women is projected to exist 1.half-dozen children per adult female, nigh a full kid less than the rate of two.five children per woman for religiously affiliated women. And although religious "nones" tend to be younger than religiously affiliated people in the United States, the contrary is true at the global level: Unaffiliated women are older than the affiliated and thus more likely to be by their prime childbearing years. In 2015, the global median age for the female unaffiliated population was 36, compared with 30 for the religiously affiliated.

These demographic patterns are heavily influenced by the situation in Asia, and especially China, which was home to 61% of the world's unaffiliated population in 2015.

What Americans believe and wait about the global size of religious groups

Before releasing projections of the future size of religious groups in 2015, Pew Enquiry Centre asked members of the American Trends Panel a few questions near their perceptions of the global religious landscape – and their expectations for its future.

Nearly half of Americans (52%) have an accurate idea of which religious group is currently the largest in the world, correctly saying that Christians make up the largest religious grouping, while a quarter remember (incorrectly) that Muslims are largest. Fewer U.S. adults say that people with no religion (15%) or Hindus (6%) are the largest religious group.

The survey also asked Americans how they await the share of the global population with no religion to change in the coming decades. Most Americans (62%) predict that the global share of religious "nones" will increase between now and 2050 – an expectation maybe colored by what is happening on a national level.

Indeed, in the U.S. and many other Western nations, the unaffiliated share of the population has been increasing and is expected to continue to rise as many Christians and others shed their religious identity and as younger, less religious generations supercede older, more religious ones. All the same, considering most religious "nones" live in Asia, where the religiously unaffiliated population is relatively onetime and has relatively low fertility, Pew Inquiry Eye projects that the global unaffiliated population will reject in the decades alee, even after factoring in expected gains via religious switching. Only 15% of U.S. adults surveyed expect that people with no religion will pass up as a share of the global population by 2050.¹³

Asked which group they look to take the most adherents globally in 2050, Americans are closely divided amid those who say religious "nones" (33%), Christians (32%) and Muslims (29%). A small share (iv%) anticipates that Hindus will be the largest grouping.

Expectations about which group will get the largest vary by respondents' historic period, religion and political party amalgamation. For case, almost half (46%) of U.S. adults nether 30 predict that people with no organized religion will outnumber Christians, Muslims and Hindus in 2050, while only nigh 3-in-ten of those ages l and older anticipate that religious "nones" will be the largest group at mid-century. Meanwhile, older Americans are more probable than young adults (under thirty) to say that Muslims will exist the largest grouping.

Christians are more likely than religious "nones" to say that Christians will exist the largest group in 2050 (36% vs. 22%). And the unaffiliated are more likely than Christians to say people with no religion will exist the largest group at mid-century: 44% of religious "nones" say this will be the instance, compared with 31% of Christians.

Differences in expectations nearly the future size of religious groups as well are credible across the political spectrum. Americans who place with or lean toward the Republican Political party are more likely than those who place as or lean Democratic to predict that Muslims will make upward the largest religious group in the world in 2050 (36% vs. 25%). By contrast, Democrats are more likely than Republicans (35% vs. 29%) to expect that people with no religion will be the largest group.

How births and deaths are changing religious populations

As the earth's largest religious group, Christians had the most births and deaths of whatsoever group between 2010 and 2015. During this five-year period, an estimated 223 one thousand thousand babies were born to Christian mothers and roughly 107 million Christians died, pregnant that the natural increment in the Christian population – i.e., the number of births minus the number of deaths – was 116 million over this menstruum.

Muslims had the second-largest number of births between 2010 and 2015, with 213 million babies born to Muslim mothers. But Muslims saw the largest natural increment of any religious group – more than 152 meg people – due to the relatively minor number of Muslim deaths (61 meg). This large natural increase results from both high Muslim fertility and the concentration of the Muslim population in younger historic period groups, which take lower mortality rates.

Compared with the overall size of the religiously unaffiliated population (xvi% of the earth'due south people), there were relatively few recent births to unaffiliated mothers (ten% of all births between 2010 and 2015). Religious "nones" are the third-largest group overall, and yet due to lower levels of fertility, they rank fourth backside Hindus in terms of babies born. Between 2010 and 2015, an estimated 68 million babies were built-in to unaffiliated mothers, compared with 109 meg to Hindu mothers. Hindus also saw a much larger natural increase than the religiously unaffiliated (67 one thousand thousand vs. 26 meg).

Births besides outnumbered deaths amongst other major religious groups between 2010 and 2015, including amid Buddhists, Jews and members of folk or traditional religions.

Beyond 2015, Christian and Muslim mothers are expected to give birth to increasing numbers of babies through 2060. Merely Muslim births are projected to ascent at a faster rate – so much and so that by 2035 the number of babies born to Muslim mothers volition narrowly surpass the number born to Christian mothers. Between 2055 and 2060, the birth gap betwixt the two groups is expected to approach six million (232 million births among Muslims vs. 226 1000000 births among Christians).

By contrast, the total number of births is projected to decline steadily betwixt 2015 and 2060 for all other major religious groups. The drop-off in births will be peculiarly dramatic for Hindus – who are expected to see 33 1000000 fewer births between 2055 and 2060 than between 2010 and 2015 – due in large part to failing fertility in Bharat, which is home to 94% of the global Hindu population every bit of 2015.

The number of deaths is projected to increment for all religious groups between 2015 and 2060, every bit the earth's population continues to grow – and grow older. ¹⁴

Regional and country-level patterns of births and deaths

For religious groups in most countries, at that place is currently either positive natural increase (more births than deaths) or trivial cyberspace modify due to births and deaths. But many European countries are experiencing a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in the populations of certain religious groups, especially Christians.

Throughout Eastern Europe and parts of Western Europe, deaths outnumbered births among Christians between 2010 and 2015 in 24 of 42 countries. Deaths also outnumbered births by at least x,000 amongst religiously unaffiliated populations in Republic of austria, Ukraine and Russia. But religious "nones" in about European countries saw either a positive natural increase (in nineteen countries) or lilliputian net alter during the catamenia from 2010 to 2015 (in 20 countries). This reflects the relatively immature historic period profile of the religiously unaffiliated compared with the Christian population in Europe.

Amid Muslims, in that location were no European countries where the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. Throughout most of the region, the number of babies born to Muslim women exceeded the number of Muslim deaths betwixt 2010 and 2015 (in 21 countries). In Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Russia and France, at that place were at least 250,000 more Muslim births than deaths in each land over that menstruum. At the same fourth dimension, migration is also driving Muslim population growth in Europe.

No Christian, Muslim or unaffiliated populations living in countries outside of Europe experienced more deaths than births in the 2010 to 2015 menstruum. Similarly, other religious groups saw either positive natural increment or footling net change, with a few exceptions: Buddhists in Japan, Hindus in South Africa and adherents of folk religions in Due south Korea and Tanzania had a larger number of deaths than births between 2010 and 2015.

In that location are of import regional differences in nascence and death trends for some religious groups. Among Christians, for case, sub-Saharan Africa experienced the biggest natural increase betwixt 2010 and 2015 – with 64 one thousand thousand more births than deaths – followed by smaller Christian increases in Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific and North America.

In Europe, yet, Christian deaths already outnumber births – a deficit that is projected to grow through 2060. And in N America, the number of Christian deaths will begin to exceed the number of births by around 2050.

These trends betoken that much of Christianity's time to come growth is likely to be in the global South, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa – the merely region where natural increases in the Christian population are expected to grow even larger in the coming decades. (This means that not merely volition in that location go on to be more than Christian births than deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, but births will exceed deaths past even larger numbers in upcoming five-year periods.) In Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region, the number of Christian births will continue to exceed the number of deaths through 2060, merely the natural increases in the 2055 to 2060 fourth dimension period will be much smaller than they are now equally these regions experience significant declines in fertility.

The global Muslim population as well is projected to undergo an important geographic shift toward sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, more Muslims live in Asia and the Pacific than in any other region, and as a result, this region had the largest natural increase in the Muslim population between 2010 and 2015.

But sub-Saharan Africa's Muslims also experienced far more than births than deaths during this period, and the natural increases in the Muslim population in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to grow even larger in the 5-yr periods alee, driven by high fertility. By nearly 2040, the natural increase in the Muslim population in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to exceed the natural increase in Asia.

Muslims in Asia and the Middle E-Due north Africa region will experience slower growth in the coming decades equally Muslim fertility in these regions declines. These populations will continue to have more than births than deaths through 2060, but they will grow at a slower charge per unit.

Muslims in Europe and N America also are expected to have more than births than deaths through 2060.

Currently, there are more births than deaths among religious "nones" in all regions, led by the Asia-Pacific region, which is domicile to a bulk of the global religiously unaffiliated population.

But this will modify in the coming years. For people with no religion in Asia, the number of deaths volition brainstorm to exceed the number of births to unaffiliated mothers by 2030, a change driven by low fertility and a relatively old unaffiliated population in People's republic of china. By 2035, unaffiliated deaths are expected to outnumber births in Europe as well.

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Source: https://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/

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